黄色网址免费看_精品一区二区免费视频视频_欧美69精品久久久久久不卡_污网站在线看_欧美阿v高清资源在线_男人日女人视频网站

 
Interview: Persistent tariffs battle could dent U.S. economic growth: economist
                 Source: Xinhua | 2018-08-17 07:22:46 | Editor: huaxia

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks to U.S. President Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 meeting in Charlevoix city of La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada, June 9, 2018. (Bundesregierung/Jesco Denzel/Handout via REUTERS)

by Xinhua writers Xu Xingtang, Yang Shilong

NEW YORK, Aug. 15 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. tariffs battles with its major trading partners, if persistent, could dent the growth momentum of the world's largest economy whose economic fundamentals remain "worrisome", a renowned U.S. economist has warned.

"I think the case for a strong U.S. economy is very short term," Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, recently told Xinhua in an interview.

Roach expressed concern over the latest development of trade frictions between the United States and China, saying the deteriorating situation could not only disrupt their economies but the global economy as a whole.

DEFICIT STIMULATED GROWTH WON'T LAST LONG

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of the year, higher than the 2.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the latest report by the U.S. Commerce Department.

"We clearly have a lot of support coming from the expansion of our federal budget deficits, which will provide further momentum over the next year in the United States," he said. "We continue to have unusually low interest rates and inflation adjusted terms, even though the Federal Reserve has started to move rates up, they're still below the inflation rate."

The White House slashed corporate and personal income taxes in January in a 1.5-trillion-U.S.-dollar package and the U.S. Congress passed a 1.3-trillion-U.S.-dollar spending bill in March.

"So our policies are providing a lot of artificial support in the United States. But the fundamentals I think are still worrisome," Roach said.

Middle-class American wages are "not increasing even though the unemployment rate is very low," he said, and Americans' chronic saving problem remains unresolved.

"If you add up the savings for individuals, businesses and the government sector, adjusted for depreciation, our net national savings rate is only about 3 percent of national income right now, which is less than half the average over the final three decades of the 20th century," he said.

"So lacking saving and wanting to grow, we import surplus savings from abroad. We run a big current account and multilateral trade deficits with lots of countries in addition to China. One wonders how sustainable that (growth) is on a longer term basis as well," he said.

U.S. economic growth will probably accelerate this year before slowing in 2019 to a 2.4 percent target as a fiscal stimulus fades, projected the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in an updated economic outlook on Monday.

RISKY TO EXPAND TARIFFS BATTLE WITH MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

Roach echoed many economists' view that rising trade barriers, as a result of the U.S.-initiated tariffs battle with its major trading partners, including China, the European Union (EU), Canada, Japan and South Korea, could put a damper on the growth of the U.S. economy as the fiscal stimulus of tax cuts fades soon.

The economist said it is wrong for the United States to think that this is the time to "take the risk to put pressure" on its trading partners to change policies, given the current strength and momentum of the U.S. economy.

In the case of the U.S.-China trade standoff, Roach said, the White House has threatened to increase the tariffs on up to 500 billion U.S. dollars of imported Chinese goods so as to "have more leverage" because China imports "a good deal less."

"That's, I think, an example of very poor analysis and a real misunderstanding of the role that the foreign trade and imports play in the U.S., to say that the deficit nation has the advantage over the surplus nation," he said.

"This goes back to the macro economic framework by which we have to look at trade deficits. When you don't save and you want to grow, you must import surplus savings from abroad, to support your economy. And that gives rise to balance of payments and multilateral trade deficits," Roach said.

The Whited House actually just revised up the U.S. savings statistics in a big, multi-year revision that was released in July, he noted. "But the savings rate is still low, you know, prior to the revision, it was estimated to be below 2 percent (of the national income), and now it's around 3."

"And so as we're continuing to put pressure on savings, these big budget deficits, the multilateral trade gap and the Chinese piece of that multilateral trade gap will continue to expand. That's the way the growth equation works for saving deficient economy like the United States," he said.

As domestic savings plunge, the United States has two options -- a reduction in investment and the economic growth it supports, or increased borrowing of surplus savings from abroad, according to Roach. Over the past 35 years, the United States has consistently opted for the latter, running balance-of-payments deficits every year since 1982 (with a minor exception in 1991, reflecting foreign contributions to U.S. military expenses in the Gulf War).

With these deficits come equally chronic trade deficits with a broad cross-section of U.S. foreign partners. In 2017, the United States ran trade deficits with 102 countries.

Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, speaks in an interview with Xinhua News Agency in Long Island, New York, the United States, on Aug. 9, 2018. (Xinhua/Zhang Mocheng)

TRADE DISPUTES COULD BE VERY DISRUPTIVE TO ECONOMY

It is "unfortunate" that trade disputes between the two largest economies in the world keep escalating, Roach said.

The 500 billion U.S. dollars of imports from China to the United States contain inputs and components from a whole lot of other countries around the world through supply chain linkages, he said. "And those imports hold down prices of goods for a large portion of American society and to tax those imports is taxing the consumers."

Trade with China allowed American families to save 850 dollars per household in 2015, a study by the U.S.-China Business Council shows.

"That's an aspect of economic vulnerability that is starting to become evident as prices are just now beginning to go up in response to these tariffs," he said. "And of course, China plays a critical role in lending surplus savings to the U.S. and buying Treasury securities, which help us fund very large and growing budget deficits in the United States."

"Potentially it could be very disruptive for the Chinese economy, for the U.S. economy and for the global economy," he said. "One hopes that reason will prevail and the escalation is limited, but I see no real evidence to suggest that's going to be the case at this point in time. So it's a worrisome development."

"I've argued that China and the United States should negotiate and sign a bilateral investment treaty, which would allow a broader investment via U.S. multinationals, for example, in Chinese counterparts. And the same is true with respect to China," he said.

"China, I think, will be the most dynamically growing domestic market in the world for the next 50 years. So other countries around the world can support their growth agendas by improving their presence in China. So it's good news that China is opening further. I think China has got to be more committed to that," he said.

Back to Top Close
Xinhuanet

Interview: Persistent tariffs battle could dent U.S. economic growth: economist

Source: Xinhua 2018-08-17 07:22:46

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks to U.S. President Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 meeting in Charlevoix city of La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada, June 9, 2018. (Bundesregierung/Jesco Denzel/Handout via REUTERS)

by Xinhua writers Xu Xingtang, Yang Shilong

NEW YORK, Aug. 15 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. tariffs battles with its major trading partners, if persistent, could dent the growth momentum of the world's largest economy whose economic fundamentals remain "worrisome", a renowned U.S. economist has warned.

"I think the case for a strong U.S. economy is very short term," Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, recently told Xinhua in an interview.

Roach expressed concern over the latest development of trade frictions between the United States and China, saying the deteriorating situation could not only disrupt their economies but the global economy as a whole.

DEFICIT STIMULATED GROWTH WON'T LAST LONG

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of the year, higher than the 2.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the latest report by the U.S. Commerce Department.

"We clearly have a lot of support coming from the expansion of our federal budget deficits, which will provide further momentum over the next year in the United States," he said. "We continue to have unusually low interest rates and inflation adjusted terms, even though the Federal Reserve has started to move rates up, they're still below the inflation rate."

The White House slashed corporate and personal income taxes in January in a 1.5-trillion-U.S.-dollar package and the U.S. Congress passed a 1.3-trillion-U.S.-dollar spending bill in March.

"So our policies are providing a lot of artificial support in the United States. But the fundamentals I think are still worrisome," Roach said.

Middle-class American wages are "not increasing even though the unemployment rate is very low," he said, and Americans' chronic saving problem remains unresolved.

"If you add up the savings for individuals, businesses and the government sector, adjusted for depreciation, our net national savings rate is only about 3 percent of national income right now, which is less than half the average over the final three decades of the 20th century," he said.

"So lacking saving and wanting to grow, we import surplus savings from abroad. We run a big current account and multilateral trade deficits with lots of countries in addition to China. One wonders how sustainable that (growth) is on a longer term basis as well," he said.

U.S. economic growth will probably accelerate this year before slowing in 2019 to a 2.4 percent target as a fiscal stimulus fades, projected the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in an updated economic outlook on Monday.

RISKY TO EXPAND TARIFFS BATTLE WITH MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

Roach echoed many economists' view that rising trade barriers, as a result of the U.S.-initiated tariffs battle with its major trading partners, including China, the European Union (EU), Canada, Japan and South Korea, could put a damper on the growth of the U.S. economy as the fiscal stimulus of tax cuts fades soon.

The economist said it is wrong for the United States to think that this is the time to "take the risk to put pressure" on its trading partners to change policies, given the current strength and momentum of the U.S. economy.

In the case of the U.S.-China trade standoff, Roach said, the White House has threatened to increase the tariffs on up to 500 billion U.S. dollars of imported Chinese goods so as to "have more leverage" because China imports "a good deal less."

"That's, I think, an example of very poor analysis and a real misunderstanding of the role that the foreign trade and imports play in the U.S., to say that the deficit nation has the advantage over the surplus nation," he said.

"This goes back to the macro economic framework by which we have to look at trade deficits. When you don't save and you want to grow, you must import surplus savings from abroad, to support your economy. And that gives rise to balance of payments and multilateral trade deficits," Roach said.

The Whited House actually just revised up the U.S. savings statistics in a big, multi-year revision that was released in July, he noted. "But the savings rate is still low, you know, prior to the revision, it was estimated to be below 2 percent (of the national income), and now it's around 3."

"And so as we're continuing to put pressure on savings, these big budget deficits, the multilateral trade gap and the Chinese piece of that multilateral trade gap will continue to expand. That's the way the growth equation works for saving deficient economy like the United States," he said.

As domestic savings plunge, the United States has two options -- a reduction in investment and the economic growth it supports, or increased borrowing of surplus savings from abroad, according to Roach. Over the past 35 years, the United States has consistently opted for the latter, running balance-of-payments deficits every year since 1982 (with a minor exception in 1991, reflecting foreign contributions to U.S. military expenses in the Gulf War).

With these deficits come equally chronic trade deficits with a broad cross-section of U.S. foreign partners. In 2017, the United States ran trade deficits with 102 countries.

Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, speaks in an interview with Xinhua News Agency in Long Island, New York, the United States, on Aug. 9, 2018. (Xinhua/Zhang Mocheng)

TRADE DISPUTES COULD BE VERY DISRUPTIVE TO ECONOMY

It is "unfortunate" that trade disputes between the two largest economies in the world keep escalating, Roach said.

The 500 billion U.S. dollars of imports from China to the United States contain inputs and components from a whole lot of other countries around the world through supply chain linkages, he said. "And those imports hold down prices of goods for a large portion of American society and to tax those imports is taxing the consumers."

Trade with China allowed American families to save 850 dollars per household in 2015, a study by the U.S.-China Business Council shows.

"That's an aspect of economic vulnerability that is starting to become evident as prices are just now beginning to go up in response to these tariffs," he said. "And of course, China plays a critical role in lending surplus savings to the U.S. and buying Treasury securities, which help us fund very large and growing budget deficits in the United States."

"Potentially it could be very disruptive for the Chinese economy, for the U.S. economy and for the global economy," he said. "One hopes that reason will prevail and the escalation is limited, but I see no real evidence to suggest that's going to be the case at this point in time. So it's a worrisome development."

"I've argued that China and the United States should negotiate and sign a bilateral investment treaty, which would allow a broader investment via U.S. multinationals, for example, in Chinese counterparts. And the same is true with respect to China," he said.

"China, I think, will be the most dynamically growing domestic market in the world for the next 50 years. So other countries around the world can support their growth agendas by improving their presence in China. So it's good news that China is opening further. I think China has got to be more committed to that," he said.

010020070750000000000000011100001373965691
主站蜘蛛池模板: 精品久久久久久亚洲综合网站|c=aopeng人人|蜜桃婷婷|国产高潮抽搐在线观看|中文字幕亚洲专区|第四色中文综合网 | 日韩片网站|久久一区二区=av|亚洲精品一区二区三区新线路|尤物tv|懂色中文一区二区三区在线视频|国产乱淫=av公 | 色妹子影院|国产福利在线永久视频|国产精品日韩精品|天堂在线99香蕉在线视频|日本欧美一区二区免费不卡|少妇人妻在线无码天堂视频网 | 夜夜躁狠狠躁夜躁2021|欧洲成人在线观看|中国少妇饥渴XXXXX|人妻巨大乳挤奶水HD免费看|视频二区在线播放|九九热精品在线视频 | 日韩小视频网站hq|免费观看视频的网站视频|色情无码WWW视频无码区|国产精=av|国产人妻无码一区二区三区不卡|色我综合 | 黄色福利网站在线观看|亚洲深夜福利|免费的爱爱视频|成人国产免费观看|精品欧美一区二区久久|一区美女 | 免费极品=aV一视觉盛宴|大陆少妇xxxx做受|懂色一区二区二区=av免费观看|女人的超长巨茎人妖在线视频|欧美激情国产精品视频一区二区|精产国品久久一二三产区区别 | 天堂色=av|аⅴ天堂中文在线网官网|#NAME?|日本=a在线看|91免费视频网址|亚洲精品久久久久久久久久久 | 超碰在线进入|一级全黄少妇免费录像片|欧美大成色WWW永久网站婷|免费看=a=a=a=a=a级淫片涩爱=av|亚洲=av成人一区二区三区在线观看|99一级片 | 高清中文字幕在线=a片|亚洲=aV日韩综合一区久热|品色堂永远的免费论坛|国产精品久久精品久久|国产视频中文字幕|亚洲精品国产综合 | АⅤ天堂中文在线网|人人澡人人澡人人看欧美|高H喷水荡肉爽文NP肉色学校|日韩一二三区不卡在线视频|欧美在线观看www|中文字幕一区二区三区5566 | 日韩在线精品一区|久久久久久视|成人=av一级|欧美一区二区三区视频在线播放|久久久久久久999|色欲人妻综合=a=a=a=a=a=a=a=a网 | 国产精欧美一区二区三区|欧美大穴|精品视频9999|男人边做边吃奶头视频|www九九热|日本午夜在线亚洲.国产 | 亚洲精品网站在线观看|国产精品美女久久福利网站|久久xxxx|亚洲精品精品|国产激情99|国产高清无码日韩一区 | 四虎影视8848dd|国产99久久久国产精品|综合视频在线观看|人成在线|国产偷国产偷亚洲高清人白洁|法国一级毛片 | 九九爱精品|无码精品=a∨在线观看|岛国视频在线|3D动漫精品啪啪一区二区免费|妺妺窝人体色WWW聚色窝|99色视频在线 | 99自拍偷拍|国产中文久久|天堂精品一区二区三区|婷婷五月开心亚洲综合在线|国产黄色片一级|丝袜理论片在线观看 | #NAME?|国产精品美女久久久久网站|h在线免费观看|男人操女人免费看|一级毛片在线播放|黄色=av小说 | 草草成人|精品综合视频|国产精品推荐精品|美国久久久久久|b=aoyu168成人免费视频|成人毛片网 | 精品少妇一区二区三区日产乱码|日本久久久久久|麻豆91视频|在线不卡小视频|国产欧美一区二区三区在线看蜜臀|黄色一级大片免费看 | 精品人妻中文字幕无码蜜桃臀|高清视频播放在线观看|色综合久久中文综合网|国产精品视频在线观看|美女爽到呻吟久久久久|亚洲国内精品 | 女明星一级毛片|国产精品成人v=a|久久天天躁狠狠躁夜夜躁2012|久热这里只有精|国产黄大片在线观看|国产成人在线播放视频 | 欧美性猛片=a=a=a=a=a=a=a做受|成年人网站91|997xx.亚洲第一区|中文在线最新版天堂|#NAME?|国产精品久久久久久久久久久免费 | 小柔在教室轮流澡到高潮视频|大乳boobs巨大吃奶乳水|蜜桃=av鲁一鲁一鲁一鲁|亚洲少妇综合网|国产亚洲精品码|免费看国产精品视频 | 爱情到此为止在线观看|精品热99|老熟女多次高潮露脸视频|91国偷自产一区二区三区老熟女|美女久久久久久久久|高潮VPSWINDOWS国产乱 | 大地免费资源|成人综合色区|无码综合天天久久综合网|男人猛躁女人网站|国产午夜福利小视频合集|国产女人与公拘交在线播放 | 成年免费观看黄页网站|亚洲毛片免费在线观看|欧美视频一区二区在线|欧美人精品XO|WWW夜片内射视频在观看视频|久久影院免费观看 | 亚洲国产一区在线观看|免费=a级伦费影视在线观看|日本在线不卡一区二区三区|91在线免费视频观看|俄罗斯=a级毛片|丁香五月开心婷婷综合中文 | 欧美在线视频三区|国产中文原创|日本午夜免费福利视频|国产色综合色产在线视频|综合国产精品|猫咪成人在线观看 | 青青草网|chinese国语videos国产|久草99|久久久久亚洲=aV色欲=aV|青青草最新网址|一个色综合色 | 亚洲精品久久久久久中文|亚洲三级一区|亚洲=aV中文无码字幕色|国产一区二区三区无码免费|日韩偷拍自拍|99久久精品免费看 | 亚洲精品久久久久久蜜臀|老熟妇性老熟妇性色|黄色一级片片|国产二区一区|极品少妇xxxxx|日日摸夜夜爽无码毛片精选 | 动漫人物交性h的视频|亚洲午夜精品无码专区在线观看|91九色在线播放|嫩草影院中文字幕|日日夜夜精品免费视频|麻豆精品一区综合=av在线 | 日本久久99成人网站|99视频在线免费看|亚洲一区成人在线观看|青草福利在线|中文字幕无线码中文字幕免费|亚洲视频h | 日本最新免费二区|亚洲无人区一区二区三区|1769国内精品视频在线播放|色姑娘天天干|日本ssswww|国产vps毛片 | #NAME?|99爱精品视频|久久久精品一区二区|国产大片一区二区三区|亚洲国产精品综合久久20|免费观看视频的网站 天天超逼|综合一区二区三区|鲍鱼=av在线|农村黄色片|国产96精品|亚洲热线99精品视频 | 一个人看www在线高清免费看|国产超碰人人|中文字幕在线观看精品|公喝错春药让我高潮|亚洲=a一区二区|幼射HD交中国妇 | 中文字幕精品影院|91高清国产视频|69xxxxx国产|国产亚洲精品久久久久秋霞|H精品动漫在线无码播放|日本黄色性视频 | 国产精品高潮呻吟久久久久久|91青娱乐在线视频|成年男人露jiji网站自慰|亚洲区免费|91精品在线一区二区|91免费高清 | 亚洲国产一区在线观看|免费=a级伦费影视在线观看|日本在线不卡一区二区三区|91在线免费视频观看|俄罗斯=a级毛片|丁香五月开心婷婷综合中文 | 最新久久久|精品成人自拍视频|日本精品一区在线|四川一级毛片在线播放|免费无码又爽又刺激激情频91|爱爱一级片 |